Slower Growth in Winnipeg’s Housing Market: What It Means for You

Winnipeg’s housing market isn’t about to crash, but it is changing. Slower growth could give buyers more breathing room, but affordability won’t automatically improve.

If you’re thinking about buying a home, wondering if your property value will hold up, or simply trying to understand where Winnipeg’s housing market is heading, the latest news from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) matters. CMHC’s 2025 Housing Market Outlook shows population growth across the Prairies is slowing down, and for Winnipeg, that means fewer new homes being built over the next few years. That slowdown could affect everything from house prices to your job and the future of your neighbourhood.

What Does Slower Population Growth Mean for You?

Winnipeg’s population has been growing steadily for years, driven largely by immigration and families moving in from other provinces. More people meant more demand for housing. That demand helped push prices up and spurred developers to build more homes, condos, and rental apartments.

However, the pace of growth is expected to ease now. The City of Winnipeg originally predicted we would add nearly 57,000 people between 2022 and 2027, but updated estimates suggest that growth is slowing to less than 1% a year. That’s still growth, but it’s a noticeable dip compared to recent years.

For someone looking to buy a home, this could mean less pressure in bidding wars and slightly more choice. However, don’t expect prices to plummet. Costs to build homes—materials, labour, and land—are still high, and interest rates remain elevated. If you’re hoping for a major price drop, you might be disappointed.

Fewer New Homes on the Way

With slower population growth, developers are expected to ease off on new housing projects. CMHC says housing starts—the number of new homes beginning construction—will decline from 2025 to 2027. This will be most noticeable with condominiums, as developers find it harder to pre-sell units to secure financing.

Rental apartments, however, will still see activity, at least through 2025 and 2026, thanks to projects already underway. Ground-level homes, like detached houses and townhouses, might see a slight recovery, especially in the more affordable range.

For potential buyers, this means there could be fewer brand-new condos available in the future. For renters, it means rents might not ease as much as you hope because demand for rentals is still high.

Impact on Jobs and Local Business

The housing market isn’t just about homebuyers. It supports a large part of Winnipeg’s economy. Construction jobs, real estate professionals, suppliers, and even local businesses benefit when new neighbourhoods are built and people move in.

Slower housing construction will likely reduce the work of builders, electricians, plumbers, and suppliers, which could mean fewer job opportunities for those in the trades or construction. Local businesses that have counted on new families moving into growing neighbourhoods might also see slower sales.

If you work in or around the housing industry, this is something to watch closely. While it won’t be a crash, companies will need to adjust to a slower pace.

Will This Help Housing Affordability?

Many people are hoping that slower growth in demand will lead to lower home prices. While it may prevent runaway price increases, affordability challenges are unlikely to disappear.

Building costs remain high, and while interest rates are expected to come down slightly, they are still far above what they were in 2020. CMHC and other experts continue to stress that Canada, including Winnipeg, still lacks enough housing to meet long-term demand.

For first-time buyers, this means homes might not get cheaper, but a more stable market with less competition could result. This might give you more time to find the right place without feeling rushed into a decision.

What Should You Watch For?

If you’re buying, selling, or investing in real estate, the next few years will require attention and patience. Here’s what to keep in mind:

• Buyers: You may not get steep discounts, but you should see a less aggressive market. Be ready to negotiate and focus on getting value.

• Sellers: Proper pricing will be key. Overpricing could leave your property sitting for longer.

• Investors: Diversifying into rentals or focusing on affordable homes may offer more stability than betting solely on condos.

What Needs to Happen Next?

This population slowdown also signals to governments. Winnipeg has a reputation for slow development approvals and complicated red tape for builders. If the market softens, developers may shift their attention to other cities with friendlier conditions. City Hall should treat this as an opportunity to streamline the building process and encourage the right kind of development, particularly affordable homes.

The province also needs to stay engaged. Offering incentives for rental construction and affordable housing could keep builders working and help address the housing shortage before it becomes another crisis.

Winnipeg’s housing market isn’t about to crash, but it is changing. Slower growth could give buyers more breathing room, but affordability won’t automatically improve. Construction workers and local businesses may feel the pinch if building slows down too much. This is a time for buyers, builders, and governments to be smart and flexible.

Change is coming. The key question is whether we adapt or fall behind.